Japan · bear sightings and attacks · updated 4 September 2026
Spring 2026 had more bear sightings than any spring in 14 years of records. The beech crop that drives autumn attacks is forecast good.
Sources: Ministry of the Environment (sightings to 30 June 2026, injuries and deaths to 31 July 2026); Tohoku Regional Forest Office beech survey (7 July 2026). A sighting is a report made to a prefecture. It is not a count of bears.
What happened in fiscal 2025?
50,801 sightings, 2.1 times the previous high. 238 people injured and 13 killed. Half of it in October and November, and three quarters of that in Tohoku.
Thirteen years of sightings.
The Ministry's series begins in fiscal 2013 with 9,133 sightings. Fiscal 2023 set a record of 24,348. Fiscal 2025 more than doubled it: 50,801.
238 injured, 13 killed.
Both are the highest since the injury count began in 2008. The previous highs were 219 injured and 6 killed, both in fiscal 2023.
Two prefectures, one autumn.
Akita reported 13,592 sightings in fiscal 2025 and Iwate 9,739, 46% of the national total. In October alone the two reported 8,898 of 15,998.
The same year, month by month.
Each cell is one prefecture in one month. October and November 2025 were 26,336 sightings, 52% of the year. The same two months of fiscal 2024 were 3,518.
Report by report.
Akita and Iwate publish totals only. Toyama, Niigata, Gunma and Saitama publish each report with a location. The map plays their fiscal 2025 month by month: 64 reports in April, 1,795 in October. Yellow marks are people injured.
Bear sightings reported to prefectures, by fiscal year (April to March), fiscal 2013 to 2025, with April to June 2026. Ministry of the Environment.
People injured and killed by bears, by fiscal year, 2008 to 2025. Ministry of the Environment.
Sightings by prefecture, fiscal 2025 (April 2025 to March 2026). Raw counts, not counts per area. Prefectures compile reports by different methods, so the ranking partly reflects reporting practice.
Reports with a location from Toyama, Niigata, Gunma and Saitama, fiscal 2025, played month by month. Yellow marks are people injured. Prefectural open data.
Sightings by prefecture and month, fiscal 2025 beside fiscal 2024 on one colour scale. Ministry of the Environment.
Why do some autumns explode?
When the beech crop fails. The six largest Octobers since 2013 all followed a poor crop, and a good crop is almost always followed by a poor one.
Beech crop and October sightings, 2012 to 2025.
Top row: the Tohoku Regional Forest Office beech index, 0 to 5, from up to 145 survey points in five prefectures. Bottom row: national October sightings. The six largest Octobers all came in years with an index below 2. No year graded 並作 or better produced an October above 2,235. The index says which years spike, not how big: 2014, 2016 and 2019 had indices as low as 2023 and Octobers near 2,600. In 2023 the index was 0.06 and October had 5,983 sightings. In 2025, 0.10 and 15,998.
A good crop is followed by a bad one.
Across the five prefectures, an autumn graded 並作 or 豊作 was followed by a poor one in 22 of 23 cases since 2012. All seven 豊作 years were followed by 大凶作. A poor year says nothing about the next: 21 of 42 were followed by another poor year. 2024 was good across Tohoku. 2025 failed.
Weather does not explain it.
Summer temperature and rainfall at Akita in the year before a crop show no relationship with the crop over 16 years. The 2023 and 2025 failures coincided with the two hottest summers, but the July survey had already graded both years 大凶作 before the heat.
Top: Tohoku Regional Forest Office beech index, 0 to 5, autumn result, 2012 to 2025. Bottom: national October sightings, Ministry of the Environment.
Tohoku Regional Forest Office beech result by prefecture, 2012 to 2025: dark is 凶作 or 大凶作, pale is 並作 or 豊作. Bottom row: Akita Prefecture’s five-site survey, 2002 to 2025, dark is a failure, pale is a full crop.
June to August mean temperature and rainfall at Akita (JMA station 47582) in the year before each crop, against the Akita beech score, crops 2010 to 2025.
Will autumn 2026 repeat autumn 2025?
Probably not. Spring is far ahead, but spring does not set the autumn, and the beech crop is forecast good. A July forecast this good has never ended in a region-wide failure.
The busiest spring in 14 years.
April to June 2026: 12,628 sightings. The previous high was 7,601 in fiscal 2024. Fiscal 2025 had 7,555 at the same point.
Spring does not set the autumn.
Across 13 years, October plus November ranged from a quarter of the spring count to three and a half times it. A high spring sets a floor for the year, not the autumn peak. Applying each past year's shape to 12,628 gives a full year of 28,293 to 84,913. That is arithmetic, not a forecast.
The 2026 crop is forecast good.
Tohoku Regional Forest Office, 7 July 2026: 豊作 in Iwate, Miyagi, Akita and Yamagata, 並作 in Aomori. Mean index 3.9, the highest July figure in 15 years, against 0.44 on the same date in 2025 and 0.54 in 2023. Niigata, 189 points: 豊作 in all four regions. Toyama: 豊作, the first in its 12-year series. Akita's five sites: full crop at four. Since 2012 the July forecast matched the autumn grade in 48 of 70 prefecture-years and was within one grade in 68. Where it missed, the autumn came in worse. A July forecast of 並作 or better has never ended in 大凶作 in 31 cases. It slipped to 凶作 eight times.
Injuries are ordinary. Deaths are not.
April to July 2026: 53 people injured, within the range of the last ten years (31 to 56). Six killed, the most for that window since the monthly count began in 2016.
Sightings per month, fiscal 2013 to 2026. Closed years in grey, fiscal 2025 in black, fiscal 2026 in green to June. Ministry of the Environment.
Each point is one fiscal year, 2013 to 2025: April to June sightings against October plus November. The line is April to June 2026.
Beech crop forecasts for autumn 2026: Tohoku Regional Forest Office (7 July 2026), Niigata Prefecture (7 August 2026), Akita Prefecture five-site forecast (November 2025).
People injured and killed by bears, April to July of each year, 2016 to 2026. Ministry of the Environment, to 31 July 2026.
Why are there more bears than there were?
Estimates rose in every prefecture with two surveys, and gun licences fell 83% since 1975.
Hunting licences, 1975 to 2021.
All licences: 517,800 to 213,400. Gun licences: 493,700 to 84,400. Trap licences rose from 51,600 in 2007 to 119,500. 119,100 of 213,400 holders were 60 or older in 2021. The Ministry does not count hunters by target species.
Bear estimates by prefecture.
Each line runs from a prefecture's earliest published estimate to its latest, with the survey year at each end. Iwate rose from 1,100 in 2006 to 3,700 in 2020. Akita from 1,052 in 2010 to 2,900 in 2024. Nagano from 2,770 in 2007 to 7,270 in 2020. Methods changed between surveys, so part of the rise is measurement. There is no national series.